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Back to Normal
Wednesday, 20 January 2010

In this research brief, Tim suggests that the entire notion of the “new normal” being somehow different is an exaggeration or an embellishment. He establishes what is normal by examining two important considerations during the course of the brief: 1) the appropriate time frame in which to analyze the characteristics of the baseline and 2) measurable variables for use in the comparison that are historically important providers of information regarding the health of the economic environment. He concludes that there is nothing “new” about this normal. In fact, the “new normal” is more appropriately described as “back to normal.” And, he argues, if it lasts for three or more years, it will then be viewed as THE normal and we will become adjusted – until it changes again.

 

 

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